前沿资讯：以太坊ETF获批可能引发60%的反弹

Approval of spot ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETF) in the U.S. could drive a rally of as much as 60% in the second-largest cryptocurrency in the coming months, QCP Capital said in a Thursday broadcast on Telegram.
QCP Capital周四在Telegram上发布广播称，现货以太坊（ETH）交易所交易基金（ETF）在美国获批，可能会推动第二大加密货币以太坊在未来几个月内反弹多达60%。

The forecast echoes the market reaction after spot bitcoin ETFs were approved in January, the Singapore-based firm said. Bitcoin rose to over $73,000 from $42,000 in the two weeks after the ETFs started trading on Jan. 11, CoinGecko data shows.
这家总部位于新加坡的公司表示，这一预测与1月份现货比特币ETF获批后的市场反应相呼应。CoinGecko数据显示，在ETF于1月11日开始交易后的两周内，比特币从42,000美元涨至73,000美元以上。 

"With Friday implied volatility above 100%, the market is expecting fireworks," QCP said. "VanEck’s ETF has been listed by the DTCC. We think approval is now highly likely with trading expected as early as next week.”
"QCP表示："由于周五的隐含波动率超过了100%，市场正在期待焰火。"VanEck的ETF已经在DTCC上市。我们认为现在批准的可能性很大，预计最早下周就会开始交易。" 

Buying activity increased on both centralized and blockchain-based crypto exchanges, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant said in a Wednesday report. Holders bought over 100,000 ETH in spot markets on Tuesday, the highest daily level since September 2023, as reports of a favorable decision emerged and some analysts bumped odds to over 75% from the earlier 25%.
链上分析公司CryptoQuant在周三的一份报告中表示，中心化和基于区块链的加密货币交易所的购买活动都有所增加。周二，现货市场上的ETH持有者买入了超过10万个ETH，这是自2023年9月以来的单日最高水平，因为有报道称，决定是有利的，一些分析师将赔率从之前的25%提高到了75%以上。

Open interest on ether-tracked futures spiked in tandem to a record $14 billion. That's 67% of bitcoin open interest as of Wednesday, an unusually high level.
以太币追踪期货的未平仓合约也同步飙升至创纪录的 140 亿美元。这相当于截至周三比特币未平仓合约的 67%，达到了一个异常高的水平。 

Activity also increased at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, an exchange favored by institutions, with ether futures hitting a record notional $2.85 billion of trading on Tuesday, according to a spokesperson. Ether options traded a record 1,135 contracts ($216 million).
芝加哥商品交易所是一家深受机构青睐的交易所，该交易所的活动也有所增加，据一位发言人称，周二以太币期货的名义交易额达到创纪录的 28.5 亿美元。以太币期权交易量达到创纪录的 1135 份合约（2.16 亿美元）。

“Traders seem to be getting more exposure now to ETH relative to Bitcoin,” CryptoQuant said. "The largest daily spot buying from ETH permanent holders so far in 2024."
"相对于比特币，交易者现在似乎对 ETH 有了更多的接触，"CryptoQuant 表示。"到目前为止，ETH永久持有者的最大日现货买盘出现在2024年。"

Ether prices in the coming days could be volatile after investors sent 62,000 ETH to exchanges, the most since early March, it said. "High exchange flows are typically associated with price volatility.”
该公司表示，在投资者向交易所发送了6.2万个以太币之后，未来几天的以太币价格可能会出现波动，这是自3月初以来最多的一次。"交易所的高流量通常与价格波动有关

On the flip side, the firm’s analysts warned of a “significant price correction” should the ETF application be dismissed.
另一方面，该公司的分析师警告称，如果ETF申请被驳回，以太币价格将出现 "大幅回调"。