美联储新掌门不太可能向股市“下马威”低头

Jay Powell received a brutish welcome from the stock market on his first day as Federal Reserve chairman, but the equity sell-off that spread across the world is unlikely on its own to force him to chart a new course on monetary policy.

杰伊•鲍威尔(Jay Powell)在出任美联储(Fed)主席的第一天，股市就给了他一个“下马威”。不过，他不太可能就因为席卷世界的股票抛售潮而改变美国的货币政策路线。

While a sustained rout would start damaging business and consumer sentiment as wealth is depressed, the S&P 500 index remains at levels seen as recently as December.

尽管持续暴跌导致的负财富效应会开始伤及企业和消费者的信心，但标普500指数(S&P 500)目前仍处于去年12月所见的点位。

A markets barometer from Goldman Sachs shows that financial conditions at Monday’s close were still nearly 170 basis points looser than they were when the Fed first lifted rates at the end of 2015, suggesting that markets are continuing to support growth.

高盛(Goldman Sachs)一项衡量市场状况的指标显示，周一收盘时的金融状况仍比美联储2015年底首次加息时宽松近170个基点，这表明市场仍在继续支撑增长。

Traders pared back their bets on a rate rise in March after the stock market slumped on Monday, putting the chances of a move at 69 per cent, according to CME Group’s analysis.

根据芝加哥商品交易所集团(CME Group)的分析，在周一的股市暴跌之后，交易员们削减了他们对美联储在3月加息的押注，由此计算得出的美联储3月加息概率为69%。

But analysts stressed that US economic prospects remain sufficiently buoyant to keep the Fed on track for three rate rises this year, which was the median forecast from Fed policymakers published in December. Goldman analysts are among those still expecting four increases.

但分析师们强调，美国经济前景依然足够乐观，因此美联储将继续沿着今年加息3次的路径前进，加息3次是美联储政策制定者去年12月发布的预测中值。而包括高盛分析师在内的一些人依然预计美联储今年将加息4次。

Mark Spindel, founder and chief investment officer at Potomac River Capital LLC, said: “The correction has been nowhere near large enough to hit the real economy. It is true that we have a new Fed chair and a lot of vacancies at the central bank, so there is uncertainty in the markets about how they will react.

Potomac River Capital LLC创始人兼首席投资官马克•斯平德尔(Mark Spindel)表示：“此次回调的幅度绝不足以冲击到实体经济。的确，我们有了一位新的美联储主席，而且这家央行也有很多职位空缺，因此市场对他们会如何应对心里没底。

“But the economy is strong, there has finally been an increase in wage growth, and unemployment is headed below 4 per cent: the worst thing Jay Powell could do would be to react to this and get pushed around by two days of market volatility.”

“但是，经济很强劲，终于实现了薪资增长，失业率也正走向4%下方：杰伊•鲍威尔能做的最糟糕的事情，就是对此作出反应、被持续两天的市场波动摆布。”