特朗普关于中国经济的说法符合事实吗？
在一场新闻发布会上，特朗普总统回答了一个关于弥合国家分歧的问题，他说自己迫使中国取消了一项加强制造业的计划，但事实并非如此。
WHAT TRUMP SAID 特朗普的说法
If you know, China has come down tremendously. Tremendously. China would have superseded us in two years as an economic power; now, they’re not even close.
如果你知道的话，中国已经极大地衰退。极大地。中国本应该在两年内取代我们成为一个经济大国;但现在，他们甚至都没能接近我们。
This is exaggerated.
这是夸大其词的说法。
It’s true that China’s growth is slowing. The economy expanded 6.5 percent in the three months that ended in September, the slowest pace in almost a decade. (Those are the official numbers, at least. Many economists believe Beijing’s statistics are implausibly smooth and do not square with outside estimates.)
中国经济放缓的确是事实。在截止9月份的三个月中，经济增长了6.5%，这是近十年来最慢的增长速度。(这些至少是官方数字。许多经济学家认为，北京的统计数据令人难以置信地平稳，并且与外部估计不相符。)
But even if China’s growth rate hadn’t slowed, the country was hardly about to eclipse the United States in two years. Last year, Chinese economic output totaled $12.2 trillion, according to the World Bank. The American economy’s output totaled $19.4 trillion. Assuming the two economies kept growing at last year’s rates, it would still take around a decade for China to surpass the United States. 但即使中国的经济增长率没有放缓，它也几乎不可能在两年内使美国黯然失色。世界银行的数据显示，去年，中国的经济总量为12.2万亿美元，美国的经济总量为19.4万亿美元。假设这两个经济体以去年的经济增长率保持增长，中国仍需要大约10年时间超越美国。
WHAT TRUMP SAID 特朗普的说法
China got rid of their “China ’25” because I found it very insulting. I said that to them. I said, “China ’25” is very insulting, because “China ’25” means, in 2025, they’re going to take over, economically, the world. I said, “That’s not happening.”
中国放弃了他们的“中国25”计划，因为我发现那是非常无礼的。我对他们说了这一点。我说，“中国25”是非常无礼的，因为“中国25”意味着在2025年他们将在经济上接管世界。我说，“那不会发生。”
False. 错。
President Trump is presumably referring to Made in China 2025, a 2015 government plan for modernizing Chinese manufacturers through state support and intervention. The Trump administration has repeatedly held up the plan as evidence that China unfairly privileges its own companies over foreign competitors in the Chinese market. The administration says its tariffs against China are intended in part to compel Beijing to change these practices.
特朗普总统指的大概是“中国制造2025”，这是一项2015年的政府计划，旨在通过国家支持和干预，来实现中国制造的现代化。特朗普政府一再举出该计划，称其为中国在国内市场不公平地将本国公司优先于外国竞争对手的证据。美国政府表示，对中国征收关税的部分目的，正是为了迫使北京改变这些做法。
Perhaps in response to all the attention the plan has received, Chinese officials have lately stopped mentioning Made in China 2025 by name. News outlets have been ordered to keep it out of their stories.
也许是为了回应对该计划的所有关注，中国官员最近不再提及“中国制造2025”的名字。新闻媒体也被命令在新闻中禁提该词。
But there is no indication that Chinese companies have halted or reversed their plans to upgrade their capabilities, or that officials are any less interested in catching up in areas like microchips.
但没有迹象表明中国公司已经停止或扭转了提高他们生产能力的计划，也没有迹象表明官员对追赶微芯片等领域降低了兴趣。
“Chinese companies are trying to reach the technological frontier, and they’re continuing to pursue these plans even if the government has stopped being vocal about Made in China 2025,” said Dan Wang, a tech analyst for the research firm Gavekal Dragonomics. “Firms and the government have already invested billions into plants producing semiconductors, robotics, aviation equipment and other high-technology goods.”
“中国企业正试图进入技术前沿，即使政府已经停止说‘中国制造2025’，他们也会继续推行这些计划，”研究机构佳富龙洲(Gavekal Dragonomics)的科技行业分析师王丹(音)说。“企业和政府向生产半导体、机器人、航空设备和其他高科技产品的工厂投入了数十亿美元。”
Also, even if the plan’s goals are eventually met, it is debatable whether that would mean China will have taken over, economically, the world. The plan includes semiofficial targets for how much Chinese manufacturers sell by 2025 … in China.
并且，即使计划的目标最终达成，这是否意味着中国将在经济上接管世界仍是有争议的。该计划包括中国制造商到2025年在中国销售额是多少的半官方目标。
WHAT TRUMP SAID 特朗普的说法
But I have to say this: Billions of dollars will soon be pouring into our Treasury from taxes that China is paying for us.
但我必须说：数十亿美元将很快从中国为我们支付的税费中流入我们的国库。
False.
错。
When the United States places tariffs on Chinese imports, China doesn’t pay them. American importers do. And they might pass along the extra costs to American consumers. (Tariffs can still hurt Chinese companies, of course, if the higher cost means Americans stop buying their products.)
当美国对中国进口产品征收关税时，中国不会支付这些关税。掏钱的是美国进口商。此外，他们可能会将额外的费用转嫁给美国消费者。(当然，如果更高昂的价格意味着美国人会停止购买他们的商品，关税仍然会伤害中国公司。)
Mr. Trump may be correct that Washington will soon be raking in more money thanks to the tariffs. China’s exports to the United States have risen recently despite the new levies. But that may just be because American buyers and Chinese sellers want to move as much product as they can before the spiraling trade war leads to even higher tariffs.
特朗普可能是正确的，得益于关税，华盛顿很快就会赚到更多的钱。尽管征收了新的关税，但中国对美国的出口最近有所上升。但这可能只是因为美国买家和中国卖家在不断升级的贸易战导致更高关税前，尽可能多地出售产品。
