GRE写作官方题库高频ARGUMENT题目满分范文分享：construction of new electric plants

　　The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company:

　　"Several recent surveys indicate that homeowners are increasingly eager to conserve energy and manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners that are almost twice as energy-efficient as those sold a decade ago. Also, new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating. Therefore, we anticipate that the total demand for electricity in our area will not increase, and may decline slightly. Since our three electric generating plants in operation for the past 20 years have always met our needs, construction of new generating plants should not be necessary."

　　Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

　　【满分范文赏析】

　　The author of this memo concludes that there is no need for an additional electric power plant in the area because total electricity demand in the area is not likely to increase in the future. To support this conclusion the author cites the availability of new energy-efficient appliances and systems for homes, and the eagerness of area homeowners to conserve energy. However, the argument relies on several questionable assumptions.

　　【本段结构】

　　本文采用了标准的Argument开头段结构，即C—A—F的开头结构。本段首先概括原文的Conclusion，之后简要提及原文为支持其结论所引用的一系列Assumption及细节，最后给出开头段到正文段的过渡句，指出原文的Flaw，即这些Assumption无法让原文逻辑上没有问题。

　　【本段功能】

　　作为Argument开头段，本段具体功能就在于发起攻击并概括原文的结论，即因为供电量会下降，没有必要新建额外的发电厂。本段接下来提到了原文中为支持之前的Conclusion所提供的证据，包括新型的节能家电用具以及当地人们想要节约能源的愿望。文章提及这些信息，为是在正文段中对这些Assumption即将进行的具体攻击做铺垫。

　　First, the author's projection for flat or declining total demand for electricity ignores business and commercial electricity usage. It is entirely possible that area businesses will increase their use of electricity in the future and that total electricity consumption will actually increase despite flat or declining residential demand. The author's projection also ignores the possibility that the number of area residents will increase in the future, thereby resulting in an increase in electricity usage regardless of whether more efficient appliances are used in area homes. Without taking these possibilities into account the recommendation above is incomplete.

　　【本段结构】

　　本段采用了标准的Argument正文段结构，即先是提及原文的第一个逻辑错误，之后分析该逻辑错误的原因，接下来，进一步分析这样的错误为什么让原文的Conclusion不成立。

　　【本段功能】

　　作为正文第一段，本段攻击原文所犯的第一个重要逻辑错误——因果类错误。原文当中假设当地居民用电量的下降会导致整体上的用电需求量下降，但是这一假设忽视了和用电量相关的其它作用因素，比如商业用电量和当地居民人口。因此在没有考虑这些因素的情况下，原文当中的这个观点是不合理的。

　　Secondly, the author's conclusion relies on the assumption that area residents have the capability and will purchase the energy-saving appliances and systems that are currently available. Admittedly, the author points out homeowners are "eager to conserve energy." Nevertheless, these homeowners might not be able to afford these new systems and appliances. Moreover, the energy-efficient insulation that the author mentions might only be available for new home construction. In that case, the mere availability of this system will have no effect on total electric usage in existing homes.

　　【本段结构】

　　本段采用了标准的Argument正文段结构，即先是提及原文的第二个逻辑错误，之后分析该逻辑错误的原因，接下来，进一步分析这样的错误为什么让原文的Conclusion不成立。

　　【本段功能】

　　作为正文第二段，本段攻击原文所犯的第二个重要逻辑错误——因果类错误。原文假设因为新型家用电器的存在，用电量会下降。但是仍旧存在其他因素会对这一预期的结果产生影响。在没有考虑到这些因素的情况下，原文的这个观点是没有说服力的。

　　A final problem involves the assertion that no new electric power plants are needed because the three existing plants, which are 20 years old, have always been adequate for the area's electric needs. The author fails to account for the possibility that the old plants are themselves less energy efficient than a new plant using new technology would be, or that the old plants need to be replaced due to their age, or for some other reason. Besides, this assertion ignores the possible influx of residents or businesses in the future, thereby increasing the demand for electricity beyond what the three existing plants can meet.

　　【本段结构】

　　本段采用了标准的Argument正文段结构，即先是提及原文的第三个逻辑错误，之后分析该逻辑错误的原因，接下来，进一步分析这样的错误为什么让原文的Conclusion不成立。

　　【本段功能】

　　作为正文第三段，本段攻击原文所犯的第三个重要逻辑错误——因果类错误。原文假设既然用电量会下降，那么发电厂设备就不需要更新换代。但是，除此之外还包括其他相关因素会导致不同的结果，比如发电厂的工作效率问题。在没有考虑到这些因素的情况下，原文的这个假设不是合理的。